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A Bayesian approach to estimating target strength

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

DOI

Abstract

Currently, conventional models of target strength (TS) vs. fish length, based on empirical measurements, are used to estimate fish density from integrated acoustic data. These models estimate a mean TS, averaged over variables that modulate fish TS (tilt angle, physiology, and morphology); they do not include information about the uncertainty of the mean TS, which could be propagated through to estimates of fish abundance. We use Bayesian methods, together with theoretical TS models and in situ TS data, to determine the uncertainty in TS estimates of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). Priors for model parameters (surface swimbladder volume, tilt angle, and s.d. of the mean TS) were used to estimate posterior parameter distributions and subsequently build a probabilistic TS model. The sensitivity of herring abundance estimates to variation in the Bayesian TS model was also evaluated. The abundance of North Sea herring from the area covered by the Scottish acoustic survey component was estimated using both the conventional TS-length formula (5.34x10(9) fish) and the Bayesian TS model (mean = 3.17x10(9) fish): this difference was probably because of the particular scattering model employed and the data used in the Bayesian model. The study demonstrates the relative importance of potential bias and precision of TS estimation and how the latter can be so much less important than the former.

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1197-1204
Number of pages8
JournalICES Journal of Marine Science
Volume66
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 2009

    Research areas

  • acoustic target strength, Bayesian statistics, herring, survey uncertainty, HERRING CLUPEA-HARENGUS, MALLOTUS-VILLOSUS MULLER, ACOUSTIC SCATTERING, SWIMBLADDER COMPRESSION, SOUND SCATTERING, STOCK ASSESSMENT, ANTARCTIC KRILL, BARENTS SEA, BALTIC SEA, 120 KHZ

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