TY - JOUR
T1 - A unified framework for modelling wildlife population dynamics
AU - Thomas, Len
AU - Buckland, Stephen Terrence
AU - Newman, Kenneth Brian
AU - Harwood, John
PY - 2005/3
Y1 - 2005/3
N2 - This paper proposes a unified framework for defining and fitting stochastic, discrete-time, discrete-stage population dynamics models. The biological system is described by a state–space model, where the true but unknown state of the population is modelled by a state process, and this is linked to survey data by an observation process. All sources of uncertainty in the inputs, including uncertainty about model specification, are readily incorporated. The paper shows how the state process can be represented as a generalization of the standard Leslie or Lefkovitch matrix. By dividing the state process into subprocesses, complex models can be constructed from manageable building blocks. The paper illustrates the approach with a model of the British Grey Seal metapopulation, using sequential importance sampling with kernel smoothing to fit the model.
AB - This paper proposes a unified framework for defining and fitting stochastic, discrete-time, discrete-stage population dynamics models. The biological system is described by a state–space model, where the true but unknown state of the population is modelled by a state process, and this is linked to survey data by an observation process. All sources of uncertainty in the inputs, including uncertainty about model specification, are readily incorporated. The paper shows how the state process can be represented as a generalization of the standard Leslie or Lefkovitch matrix. By dividing the state process into subprocesses, complex models can be constructed from manageable building blocks. The paper illustrates the approach with a model of the British Grey Seal metapopulation, using sequential importance sampling with kernel smoothing to fit the model.
KW - auxiliary particle filter
KW - ecology
KW - Grey Seals
KW - Halichoerus grypus
KW - metapopulation
KW - nonlinear stochastic matrix models
KW - sequential importance sampling
KW - wildlife
KW - conservation and management
KW - grey seals
KW - state-space models
KW - wildlife conservation and management
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10023/678
U2 - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.2005.00369.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1467-842x.2005.00369.x
M3 - Article
VL - 47
SP - 19
EP - 34
JO - Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics
JF - Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics
SN - 1369-1473
IS - 1
ER -