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Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

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Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. / Allan, Richard P.; Barlow, Mathew; Byrne, Michael P.; Cherchi, Annalisa; Douville, Hervé; Fowler, Hayley J.; Gan, Thian Y.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Wilcox, Laura J.; Zolina, Olga.

In: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. Early View, 04.04.2020.

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Allan, RP, Barlow, M, Byrne, MP, Cherchi, A, Douville, H, Fowler, HJ, Gan, TY, Pendergrass, AG, Rosenfeld, D, Swann, ALS, Wilcox, LJ & Zolina, O 2020, 'Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change', Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. Early View. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337

APA

Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., Wilcox, L. J., & Zolina, O. (2020). Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Early View. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337

Vancouver

Allan RP, Barlow M, Byrne MP, Cherchi A, Douville H, Fowler HJ et al. Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2020 Apr 4;Early View. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337

Author

Allan, Richard P. ; Barlow, Mathew ; Byrne, Michael P. ; Cherchi, Annalisa ; Douville, Hervé ; Fowler, Hayley J. ; Gan, Thian Y. ; Pendergrass, Angeline G. ; Rosenfeld, Daniel ; Swann, Abigail L. S. ; Wilcox, Laura J. ; Zolina, Olga. / Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change. In: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. 2020 ; Vol. Early View.

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@article{8ecb15ecf09642bdb9ae01d5fcce3cad,
title = "Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change",
abstract = "Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.",
keywords = "Climate change, Water cycle, Precipitation, Land surface, Radiative forcing",
author = "Allan, {Richard P.} and Mathew Barlow and Byrne, {Michael P.} and Annalisa Cherchi and Herv{\'e} Douville and Fowler, {Hayley J.} and Gan, {Thian Y.} and Pendergrass, {Angeline G.} and Daniel Rosenfeld and Swann, {Abigail L. S.} and Wilcox, {Laura J.} and Olga Zolina",
note = "R.P.A. is funded by the National Centre for Earth Observation and U.K. Natural Environment Research Council SMURPHS Grant (NE/N006054/1). H.J.F. is funded by the Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society as a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award holder (Grant WM140025). A.G.P. was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation (NSF) IA 1844590 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1947282. ",
year = "2020",
month = apr,
day = "4",
doi = "10.1111/nyas.14337",
language = "English",
volume = "Early View",
journal = "Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences",
issn = "0077-8923",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

AU - Allan, Richard P.

AU - Barlow, Mathew

AU - Byrne, Michael P.

AU - Cherchi, Annalisa

AU - Douville, Hervé

AU - Fowler, Hayley J.

AU - Gan, Thian Y.

AU - Pendergrass, Angeline G.

AU - Rosenfeld, Daniel

AU - Swann, Abigail L. S.

AU - Wilcox, Laura J.

AU - Zolina, Olga

N1 - R.P.A. is funded by the National Centre for Earth Observation and U.K. Natural Environment Research Council SMURPHS Grant (NE/N006054/1). H.J.F. is funded by the Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society as a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award holder (Grant WM140025). A.G.P. was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation (NSF) IA 1844590 and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1947282.

PY - 2020/4/4

Y1 - 2020/4/4

N2 - Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

AB - Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in‐storm and larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes in large‐scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

KW - Climate change

KW - Water cycle

KW - Precipitation

KW - Land surface

KW - Radiative forcing

U2 - 10.1111/nyas.14337

DO - 10.1111/nyas.14337

M3 - Review article

VL - Early View

JO - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

JF - Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

SN - 0077-8923

ER -

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