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An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts.

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An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts. / Lonergan, Michael Edward; Thompson, David; Thomas, Leonard Joseph; Duck, Callan David.

In: Journal of Marine Biology, 2011.

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Lonergan, ME, Thompson, D, Thomas, LJ & Duck, CD 2011, 'An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts.' Journal of Marine Biology. https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/597424

APA

Lonergan, M. E., Thompson, D., Thomas, L. J., & Duck, C. D. (2011). An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts. Journal of Marine Biology, [597424]. https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/597424

Vancouver

Lonergan ME, Thompson D, Thomas LJ, Duck CD. An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts. Journal of Marine Biology. 2011. 597424. https://doi.org/10.1155/2011/597424

Author

Lonergan, Michael Edward ; Thompson, David ; Thomas, Leonard Joseph ; Duck, Callan David. / An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts. In: Journal of Marine Biology. 2011.

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@article{f804d5cc70324bfb9882c535e8442521,
title = "An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts.",
abstract = "1. For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially, but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. 2. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models. The method is equivalent to fitting a density dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions. 3. This approach requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used, and produces similar estimates. The simplifications made the models easier to fit, reducing their computational intensity and allowing regional differences in demographic parameters to be considered.4. The approach is not restricted to situations where only a single component of the population is observable, but, particularly in those cases, provides a practical method for extracting information from limited datasets. 5. We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.",
author = "Lonergan, {Michael Edward} and David Thompson and Thomas, {Leonard Joseph} and Duck, {Callan David}",
year = "2011",
doi = "10.1155/2011/597424",
language = "English",
journal = "Journal of Marine Biology",
issn = "1687-9481",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - An approximate Bayesian method applied to estimating the trajectories of four British grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) populations from pup counts.

AU - Lonergan, Michael Edward

AU - Thompson, David

AU - Thomas, Leonard Joseph

AU - Duck, Callan David

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - 1. For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially, but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. 2. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models. The method is equivalent to fitting a density dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions. 3. This approach requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used, and produces similar estimates. The simplifications made the models easier to fit, reducing their computational intensity and allowing regional differences in demographic parameters to be considered.4. The approach is not restricted to situations where only a single component of the population is observable, but, particularly in those cases, provides a practical method for extracting information from limited datasets. 5. We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.

AB - 1. For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially, but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. 2. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models. The method is equivalent to fitting a density dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions. 3. This approach requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used, and produces similar estimates. The simplifications made the models easier to fit, reducing their computational intensity and allowing regional differences in demographic parameters to be considered.4. The approach is not restricted to situations where only a single component of the population is observable, but, particularly in those cases, provides a practical method for extracting information from limited datasets. 5. We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.

UR - http://www.hindawi.com/journals/jmb/2011/597424/

U2 - 10.1155/2011/597424

DO - 10.1155/2011/597424

M3 - Article

JO - Journal of Marine Biology

T2 - Journal of Marine Biology

JF - Journal of Marine Biology

SN - 1687-9481

M1 - 597424

ER -

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ID: 469603