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Beyond climate envelopes: bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles

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Beyond climate envelopes : bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles. / Russell, Deborah Jill Fraser; Wanless, Sarah; Collingham, Yvonne; Anderson, Barbara; Beale, Colin; Reid, James; Huntley, Brian; Hamer, Keith.

In: Diversity and Distributions, Vol. 21, No. 2, 02.2015, p. 211-222.

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Russell, DJF, Wanless, S, Collingham, Y, Anderson, B, Beale, C, Reid, J, Huntley, B & Hamer, K 2015, 'Beyond climate envelopes: bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles' Diversity and Distributions, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 211-222. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12272

APA

Russell, D. J. F., Wanless, S., Collingham, Y., Anderson, B., Beale, C., Reid, J., ... Hamer, K. (2015). Beyond climate envelopes: bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles. Diversity and Distributions, 21(2), 211-222. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12272

Vancouver

Russell DJF, Wanless S, Collingham Y, Anderson B, Beale C, Reid J et al. Beyond climate envelopes: bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles. Diversity and Distributions. 2015 Feb;21(2):211-222. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12272

Author

Russell, Deborah Jill Fraser ; Wanless, Sarah ; Collingham, Yvonne ; Anderson, Barbara ; Beale, Colin ; Reid, James ; Huntley, Brian ; Hamer, Keith. / Beyond climate envelopes : bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles. In: Diversity and Distributions. 2015 ; Vol. 21, No. 2. pp. 211-222.

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@article{a168180ca5e5488b935157d077c2985c,
title = "Beyond climate envelopes: bio-climate modelling accords with observed 25-year changes in seabird populations of the British Isles",
abstract = "Aim Climate envelope models (CEMs) are used to assess species’ vulnerabilityto predicted changes in climate, based on their distributions. Extinction risk,however, also depends on demographic parameters. Accordingly, we use CEMsfor 18 seabird species to test three hypotheses: (i) population sizes are larger inareas where CEMs fitted using distribution data predict more suitable climate;(ii) the presence of this relationship (Hypothesis i) is related to a species’ foraging ecology; and (iii) species whose distributions and population sizes conformed most closely to indices of climatic suitability in the mid-1980sexperienced the largest population changes following climatic change between1986 and 2010.Location Europe.Methods Climate envelope models fitted at a 50-km resolution using Europeanclimatic and distribution data were applied using local climatic data tocalculate local climatic suitability indices (CSIs) for 18 species within the BritishIsles. We then investigated the relationship between CSI and population size ata 10-km resolution and related both the presence of this relationship and goodness-of-fit metrics from the European models to changes in population size(1986–2010).Results Local population sizes were significantly positively related to local CSIin 50{\%} of species, providing support for Hypothesis (i), and these 50{\%} of specieswere independently considered to be most vulnerable to changes in foodavailability at sea in support of Hypothesis (ii). Those species whose distributionsand populations most closely conformed to indices of climatic suitabilityshowed the least favourable subsequent changes in population size, over a period in which mean climatic suitability decreased for all species, in support ofHypothesis (iii).Main conclusions Climate influences the population sizes of multiple seabirdspecies in the British Isles. We highlight the potential for outputs of CEMs fittedwith coarse resolution occupancy data to provide information on both localabundance and sensitivity to future climate changes.",
keywords = "Ecological niche modelling, Global warming, Long-term studies, Population monitoring, Space-for-time substitutions, Species distribution model",
author = "Russell, {Deborah Jill Fraser} and Sarah Wanless and Yvonne Collingham and Barbara Anderson and Colin Beale and James Reid and Brian Huntley and Keith Hamer",
note = "DJFR was supported by the NERC UKPopNet, and BJA was also supported by NERC.",
year = "2015",
month = "2",
doi = "10.1111/ddi.12272",
language = "English",
volume = "21",
pages = "211--222",
journal = "Diversity and Distributions",
issn = "1366-9516",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "2",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Beyond climate envelopes

T2 - Diversity and Distributions

AU - Russell, Deborah Jill Fraser

AU - Wanless, Sarah

AU - Collingham, Yvonne

AU - Anderson, Barbara

AU - Beale, Colin

AU - Reid, James

AU - Huntley, Brian

AU - Hamer, Keith

N1 - DJFR was supported by the NERC UKPopNet, and BJA was also supported by NERC.

PY - 2015/2

Y1 - 2015/2

N2 - Aim Climate envelope models (CEMs) are used to assess species’ vulnerabilityto predicted changes in climate, based on their distributions. Extinction risk,however, also depends on demographic parameters. Accordingly, we use CEMsfor 18 seabird species to test three hypotheses: (i) population sizes are larger inareas where CEMs fitted using distribution data predict more suitable climate;(ii) the presence of this relationship (Hypothesis i) is related to a species’ foraging ecology; and (iii) species whose distributions and population sizes conformed most closely to indices of climatic suitability in the mid-1980sexperienced the largest population changes following climatic change between1986 and 2010.Location Europe.Methods Climate envelope models fitted at a 50-km resolution using Europeanclimatic and distribution data were applied using local climatic data tocalculate local climatic suitability indices (CSIs) for 18 species within the BritishIsles. We then investigated the relationship between CSI and population size ata 10-km resolution and related both the presence of this relationship and goodness-of-fit metrics from the European models to changes in population size(1986–2010).Results Local population sizes were significantly positively related to local CSIin 50% of species, providing support for Hypothesis (i), and these 50% of specieswere independently considered to be most vulnerable to changes in foodavailability at sea in support of Hypothesis (ii). Those species whose distributionsand populations most closely conformed to indices of climatic suitabilityshowed the least favourable subsequent changes in population size, over a period in which mean climatic suitability decreased for all species, in support ofHypothesis (iii).Main conclusions Climate influences the population sizes of multiple seabirdspecies in the British Isles. We highlight the potential for outputs of CEMs fittedwith coarse resolution occupancy data to provide information on both localabundance and sensitivity to future climate changes.

AB - Aim Climate envelope models (CEMs) are used to assess species’ vulnerabilityto predicted changes in climate, based on their distributions. Extinction risk,however, also depends on demographic parameters. Accordingly, we use CEMsfor 18 seabird species to test three hypotheses: (i) population sizes are larger inareas where CEMs fitted using distribution data predict more suitable climate;(ii) the presence of this relationship (Hypothesis i) is related to a species’ foraging ecology; and (iii) species whose distributions and population sizes conformed most closely to indices of climatic suitability in the mid-1980sexperienced the largest population changes following climatic change between1986 and 2010.Location Europe.Methods Climate envelope models fitted at a 50-km resolution using Europeanclimatic and distribution data were applied using local climatic data tocalculate local climatic suitability indices (CSIs) for 18 species within the BritishIsles. We then investigated the relationship between CSI and population size ata 10-km resolution and related both the presence of this relationship and goodness-of-fit metrics from the European models to changes in population size(1986–2010).Results Local population sizes were significantly positively related to local CSIin 50% of species, providing support for Hypothesis (i), and these 50% of specieswere independently considered to be most vulnerable to changes in foodavailability at sea in support of Hypothesis (ii). Those species whose distributionsand populations most closely conformed to indices of climatic suitabilityshowed the least favourable subsequent changes in population size, over a period in which mean climatic suitability decreased for all species, in support ofHypothesis (iii).Main conclusions Climate influences the population sizes of multiple seabirdspecies in the British Isles. We highlight the potential for outputs of CEMs fittedwith coarse resolution occupancy data to provide information on both localabundance and sensitivity to future climate changes.

KW - Ecological niche modelling

KW - Global warming

KW - Long-term studies

KW - Population monitoring

KW - Space-for-time substitutions

KW - Species distribution model

UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12272/suppinfo

U2 - 10.1111/ddi.12272

DO - 10.1111/ddi.12272

M3 - Article

VL - 21

SP - 211

EP - 222

JO - Diversity and Distributions

JF - Diversity and Distributions

SN - 1366-9516

IS - 2

ER -

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