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Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time

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DOI

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Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time. / Marshall, Alan; Christison, Sarah; Simpson, Ludi.

In: Statistical Journal of the IAOS, Vol. 33, No. 3, 19.08.2017, p. 683-700.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Marshall, A, Christison, S & Simpson, L 2017, 'Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time' Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol 33, no. 3, pp. 683-700. DOI: 10.3233/SJI-160342

APA

Marshall, A., Christison, S., & Simpson, L. (2017). Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time. Statistical Journal of the IAOS, 33(3), 683-700. DOI: 10.3233/SJI-160342

Vancouver

Marshall A, Christison S, Simpson L. Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time. Statistical Journal of the IAOS. 2017 Aug 19;33(3):683-700. Available from, DOI: 10.3233/SJI-160342

Author

Marshall, Alan; Christison, Sarah; Simpson, Ludi / Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time.

In: Statistical Journal of the IAOS, Vol. 33, No. 3, 19.08.2017, p. 683-700.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Bibtex - Download

@article{89b622300ec543a89d101584fcdeea08,
title = "Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time",
abstract = "Population estimates for sub-national areas underpin resource targeting for public and private expenditure. We quantify the success of the Office for National Statistics Small Area Population Estimates (ONS SAPE) in England (2011) using census-based population estimates as a comparative gold standard. We model the accuracy (% absolute error) of the ONS SAPE for Lower Super Output areas according to place characteristics and broad age groups. We compare the modelled accuracy to similar small area population estimates developed by local planners in 1991 and also to simple methods (2011) that might be used with less investment in estimation. Our results show that the ONS SAPE is of comparable accuracy to locally conducted censuses that provided the most accurate results in 1991. We find no combination of area characteristic or age group in which simpler methods of population estimation (in 1991 or 2001) outperform the ONS SAPE. The ONS SAPE is least accurate for young adult ages and areas that are experiencing high unemployment or in-migration. For such areas and groups local censuses may be used to resolve disputes over population estimates and are where attention might be focussed in order to improve the accuracy of small area population estimates.",
keywords = "Accuracy, Area type, Error, Small area population estimates",
author = "Alan Marshall and Sarah Christison and Ludi Simpson",
year = "2017",
month = "8",
doi = "10.3233/SJI-160342",
volume = "33",
pages = "683--700",
journal = "Statistical Journal of the IAOS",
issn = "1874-7655",
publisher = "IOS Press",
number = "3",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Error in official age-specific population estimates over place and time

AU - Marshall,Alan

AU - Christison,Sarah

AU - Simpson,Ludi

PY - 2017/8/19

Y1 - 2017/8/19

N2 - Population estimates for sub-national areas underpin resource targeting for public and private expenditure. We quantify the success of the Office for National Statistics Small Area Population Estimates (ONS SAPE) in England (2011) using census-based population estimates as a comparative gold standard. We model the accuracy (% absolute error) of the ONS SAPE for Lower Super Output areas according to place characteristics and broad age groups. We compare the modelled accuracy to similar small area population estimates developed by local planners in 1991 and also to simple methods (2011) that might be used with less investment in estimation. Our results show that the ONS SAPE is of comparable accuracy to locally conducted censuses that provided the most accurate results in 1991. We find no combination of area characteristic or age group in which simpler methods of population estimation (in 1991 or 2001) outperform the ONS SAPE. The ONS SAPE is least accurate for young adult ages and areas that are experiencing high unemployment or in-migration. For such areas and groups local censuses may be used to resolve disputes over population estimates and are where attention might be focussed in order to improve the accuracy of small area population estimates.

AB - Population estimates for sub-national areas underpin resource targeting for public and private expenditure. We quantify the success of the Office for National Statistics Small Area Population Estimates (ONS SAPE) in England (2011) using census-based population estimates as a comparative gold standard. We model the accuracy (% absolute error) of the ONS SAPE for Lower Super Output areas according to place characteristics and broad age groups. We compare the modelled accuracy to similar small area population estimates developed by local planners in 1991 and also to simple methods (2011) that might be used with less investment in estimation. Our results show that the ONS SAPE is of comparable accuracy to locally conducted censuses that provided the most accurate results in 1991. We find no combination of area characteristic or age group in which simpler methods of population estimation (in 1991 or 2001) outperform the ONS SAPE. The ONS SAPE is least accurate for young adult ages and areas that are experiencing high unemployment or in-migration. For such areas and groups local censuses may be used to resolve disputes over population estimates and are where attention might be focussed in order to improve the accuracy of small area population estimates.

KW - Accuracy

KW - Area type

KW - Error

KW - Small area population estimates

U2 - 10.3233/SJI-160342

DO - 10.3233/SJI-160342

M3 - Article

VL - 33

SP - 683

EP - 700

JO - Statistical Journal of the IAOS

T2 - Statistical Journal of the IAOS

JF - Statistical Journal of the IAOS

SN - 1874-7655

IS - 3

ER -

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ID: 251031784