Skip to content

Research at St Andrews

Evaluating the influence of epidemiological parameters and host ecology on the spread of phocine distemper virus through populations of harbour seals

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Author(s)

School/Research organisations

Abstract

Background: Outbreaks of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in Europe during 1988 and 2002 were responsible for the death of around 23,000 and 30,000 harbour seals, respectively. These epidemics, particularly the one in 2002, provided an unusual opportunity to estimate epidemic parameters for a wildlife disease. There were marked regional differences in the values of some parameters both within and between epidemics.
Methodology and Principal Findings: We used an individual-based model of seal movement that allowed us to incorporate realistic representations of space, time and animal behaviour into a traditional epidemiological modelling framework. We explored the potential influence of a range of ecological (foraging trip duration, time of epidemic onset, population size) and epidemiological (length of infectious period, contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals, case mortality) parameters on four readily-measurable epidemic characteristics (number of dead individuals, duration of epidemic, peak mortality date and prevalence) and on the probability that an epidemic would occur in a particular region. We analysed the outputs as if they were the results of a series of virtual experiments, using Generalised Linear Modelling. All six variables had a significant effect on the probability that an epidemic would be recognised as an unusual mortality event by human observers.
Conclusions: Regional and temporal variation in contact rate was the most likely cause of the observed differences between the two epidemics. This variation could be a consequence of differences in the way individuals divide their time between land and sea at different times of the year.
Close

Details

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2710
JournalPLoS One
Volume3
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2008

Discover related content
Find related publications, people, projects and more using interactive charts.

View graph of relations

Related by author

  1. A simulation approach to assessing environmental risk of sound exposure to marine mammals

    Donovan, C. R., Harris, C. M., Milazzo, L., Harwood, J., Marshall, L. & Williams, R., Apr 2017, In : Ecology and Evolution. 7, 7, p. 2101-2111 11 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  2. Environmental Risk Management Capability: Advice on Minimising the Impact of Both Sonar and Seismic Offshore Operations on Marine Mammals

    Mollett, A., Schofield, C., Miller, I., Harwood, J., Harris, C. M. & Donovan, C. R., 2009, Offshore Europe Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition : proceedings : 8-11 September 2009, Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Center UK, Aberdeen UK. Society of Petroleum Engineers, p. 1-8 8 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

  3. Influence of the physical environment and conspecific aggression on the spatial arrangement of breeding grey seals

    Harris, C. M., Matthiopoulos, J. & Harwood, J., Dec 2007, In : Ecological Informatics. 2, 4, p. 308-317 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  4. Defining biologically relevant management units for seal populations in the UK

    Everard, K., Harwood, J., Matthiopoulos, J., McConnell, B. J., Sharples, R., Harris, C. M. & Warnes, C. Z., 2005, Unknown Publisher.

    Research output: Book/ReportCommissioned report

  5. Bio-energetic modeling of medium-sized cetaceans shows high sensitivity to disturbance in seasons of low resource supply

    Hin, V., Harwood, J. & de Roos, A. M., 16 May 2019, In : Ecological Applications. Early View, 19 p., e01903.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Related by journal

  1. PLoS ONE (Journal)

    Joanna Louise Kershaw (Member of editorial board)
    18 Mar 2019

    Activity: Publication peer-review and editorial work typesPeer review of manuscripts

  2. PLoS ONE (Journal)

    Catharine Penelope Cross (Member of editorial board)
    1 Sep 2018 → …

    Activity: Publication peer-review and editorial work typesEditor of research journal

  3. PLoS ONE (Journal)

    Will Cresswell (Reviewer)
    23 May 2018

    Activity: Publication peer-review and editorial work typesPeer review of manuscripts

  4. PLoS ONE (Journal)

    Barbara Dritschel (Member of editorial board)
    May 2018 → …

    Activity: Publication peer-review and editorial work typesEditor of research journal

  5. PLoS ONE (Journal)

    Simon Young (Reviewer)
    7 Jun 201719 Jun 2017

    Activity: Publication peer-review and editorial work typesPeer review of manuscripts

Related by journal

  1. Agreement between primary care and hospital diagnosis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder: a cross-sectional, observational study using record linkage

    O’Neill, B., Kalia, S., Aliarzadeh, B., Moineddin, R., Fung, W. L. A., Sullivan, F., Maloul, A., Bernard, S. & Greiver, M., 7 Jan 2019, In : PLoS ONE. 14, 1, 15 p., e0210214.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  2. Correlates of social role and conflict severity in wild vervet monkey agonistic screams

    Mercier, S., Déaux, E. C., van de Waal, E., Bono, A. E. J. & Zuberbuhler, K., 1 May 2019, In : PLoS One. 14, 5, 20 p., e0214640.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  3. Molecular epidemiology and expression of capsular polysaccharides in Staphylococcus aureus clinical isolates in the United States

    Mohamed, N., Timofeyeva, Y., Jamrozy, D., Rojas, E., Hao, L., Silmon de Monerri, N. C., Hawkins, J., Singh, G., Cai, B., Liberator, P., Sebastian, S., Donald, R. G. K., Scully, I. L., Jones, C. H., Creech, C. B., Thomsen, I., Parkhill, J., Peacock, S. J., Jansen, K. U., Holden, M. T. G. & 1 othersAnderson, A. S., 14 Jan 2019, In : PLoS ONE. 14, 1, 33 p., e0208356.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  4. Orangutans (Pongo abelii) make flexible decisions relative to reward quality and tool functionality in a multi-dimensional tool-use task

    Laumer, I. B., Auersperg, A. M. I., Bugnyar, T. & Call, J., 13 Feb 2019, In : PLoS ONE. 14, 2, 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  5. Sensitivity of multispecies maximum sustainable yields to trends in the top (marine mammals) and bottom (primary production) compartments of the southern North Sea food-web

    Stäbler, M., Kempf, A., Smout, S. & Temming, A., 28 Jan 2019, In : PLoS ONE. 14, 1, 18 p., e0210882.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

ID: 416568