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Greater early bactericidal activity at higher rifampicin doses revealed by modeling and clinical trial simulations

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


Open Access Status

  • Embargoed (until 28/04/19)


Robin J Svensson, Elin M Svensson, Rob E Aarnoutse, Andreas H Diacon, Rodney Dawson, Stephen H Gillespie, Mischka Moodley, Martin J Boeree, Ulrika S H Simonsson

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Background The currently recommended rifampicin dose (10 mg/kg) for treating tuberculosis is suboptimal. The PanACEA HIGHRIF1 trial evaluated the pharmacokinetics and early bactericidal activity of rifampicin doses of up to 40 mg/kg. Conventional statistical analyses revealed no significant exposure-response relationship. Our objectives were to explore the exposure-response relationship for high-dose rifampicin by using pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling and to predict the early bactericidal activity of 50 mg/kg rifampicin.

Methods Data included time to Mycobacterium tuberculosis positivity of liquid cultures of sputum specimens from 83 patients with tuberculosis who were treated with 10 mg/kg rifampicin (n = 8; reference arm) or 20, 25, 30, 35, or 40 mg/kg rifampicin (n = 15/arm) for 7 days. We used a semimechanistic time-to-event approach to model the time-to-positivity data. Rifampicin exposure and baseline time to culture positivity were explored as covariates.

Results The baseline time to culture positivity was a significant covariate on the predicted initial bacterial load, and rifampicin exposure was a significant covariate on the bacterial kill rate in sputum resulting in increased early bactericidal activity. The 90% prediction interval for the predicted median day 7 increase in time to positivity for 50 mg/kg rifampicin was 7.25–10.3 days.

Conclusions A significant exposure-response relationship was found between rifampicin exposure and early bactericidal activity. Clinical trial simulations showed greater early bactericidal activity for 50 mg/kg rifampicin.


Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Infectious Diseases
VolumeIn press
Early online date28 Apr 2018
StateE-pub ahead of print - 28 Apr 2018

    Research areas

  • Pharmacodynamics, Tuberculosis, Pharmacokinetics, Patients, Time to positivity, Early bactericidal effect, Mycobacterium tuberculosis

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