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How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

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How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity. / Cresswell, Will.

Proceedings of the 1st European Whinchat Symposium: Living on the edge of extinction in Europe. ed. / Hans-Valentin Bastian; Jurgen Feulner. LBV Hof Helmsbrechts : Landesbund fur Vogelschutz / Kreisgruppe Hof, 2015. p. 145-158.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Harvard

Cresswell, W 2015, How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity. in H-V Bastian & J Feulner (eds), Proceedings of the 1st European Whinchat Symposium: Living on the edge of extinction in Europe. Landesbund fur Vogelschutz / Kreisgruppe Hof, LBV Hof Helmsbrechts, pp. 145-158, 1st European Whinchat Symposium, Helmbrechts, Germany, 28/05/15.

APA

Cresswell, W. (2015). How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity. In H-V. Bastian, & J. Feulner (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1st European Whinchat Symposium: Living on the edge of extinction in Europe (pp. 145-158). Landesbund fur Vogelschutz / Kreisgruppe Hof.

Vancouver

Cresswell W. How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity. In Bastian H-V, Feulner J, editors, Proceedings of the 1st European Whinchat Symposium: Living on the edge of extinction in Europe. LBV Hof Helmsbrechts: Landesbund fur Vogelschutz / Kreisgruppe Hof. 2015. p. 145-158

Author

Cresswell, Will. / How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity. Proceedings of the 1st European Whinchat Symposium: Living on the edge of extinction in Europe. editor / Hans-Valentin Bastian ; Jurgen Feulner. LBV Hof Helmsbrechts : Landesbund fur Vogelschutz / Kreisgruppe Hof, 2015. pp. 145-158

Bibtex - Download

@inproceedings{6740d49e3b79428d82031be89f3dd8a7,
title = "How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity",
abstract = "Accurate monitoring of whinchat population dynamics requires accurateestimates of breeding season survival and productivity, non-breeding survivaland site fidelity (dispersal, immigration and emmigration). But monitoring ofnon-breeding survival between breeding seasons is confounded by the scale ofsite fidelity resulting in low estimates, and this will vary dependent on breedingsuccess. Only one study (in progress) has measured true survival of whinchatson the wintering grounds (in Nigeria) where site fidelity is probably very high.Results from an ongoing geolocator tagging study also show only very largescale connectivity (at the scale of thousands of kilometres) between breedingand wintering populations. This means that annual survival rates measured atany point on the wintering ground probably average true breeding and migrationsurvival for a large part of the breeding range, giving a representative truesurvival rate to use in calculating population dynamics. More importantly, if wehave a measure of true average annual survival then we can calculate theproportion of adults that are dispersing and also the scale at which they dispersefor breeding populations. Between winter survival rates for whinchats are thesame for first year birds and adults suggesting that the ubiquitous lower survivalrate of juveniles must arise between fledging and arrival at their winteringterritory: therefore survival estimates for this period should be investigated. Ifsurvival immediately post-fledging or just before migration is variable then thiswill greatly affect local population dynamics, but once migration starts – themultiple routes and large scale connectivity - will mean populations over a largearea will be affected to the same degree. If survival during first migration hasdeclined substantially anywhere then many populations in the Palearctic will beaffected. Average annual true survival for whinchats greater than about 4months old, across much of Eastern Europe is greater than 50%: therefore it is itlikely that local productivity or survival pre-migration determines an individual population{\textquoteright}s dynamics, with the overall trajectory for the population beingdetermined by the additive effect of first migration survival. However, furtherestimates of whinchat true annual survival are needed from other areas of Africato determine if overwinter survival is always high: if not then this variation wouldnegatively affect all Palearctic whinchat populations because of large scaleconnectivity, in the same way that first migration survival may do. ",
author = "Will Cresswell",
year = "2015",
language = "English",
isbn = "9783000495052",
pages = "145--158",
editor = "Hans-Valentin Bastian and Jurgen Feulner",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 1st European Whinchat Symposium",
publisher = "Landesbund fur Vogelschutz / Kreisgruppe Hof",
note = "1st European Whinchat Symposium ; Conference date: 28-05-2015 Through 29-05-2015",
url = "http://hof.lbv.de/aktuell.html",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - GEN

T1 - How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity

AU - Cresswell, Will

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Accurate monitoring of whinchat population dynamics requires accurateestimates of breeding season survival and productivity, non-breeding survivaland site fidelity (dispersal, immigration and emmigration). But monitoring ofnon-breeding survival between breeding seasons is confounded by the scale ofsite fidelity resulting in low estimates, and this will vary dependent on breedingsuccess. Only one study (in progress) has measured true survival of whinchatson the wintering grounds (in Nigeria) where site fidelity is probably very high.Results from an ongoing geolocator tagging study also show only very largescale connectivity (at the scale of thousands of kilometres) between breedingand wintering populations. This means that annual survival rates measured atany point on the wintering ground probably average true breeding and migrationsurvival for a large part of the breeding range, giving a representative truesurvival rate to use in calculating population dynamics. More importantly, if wehave a measure of true average annual survival then we can calculate theproportion of adults that are dispersing and also the scale at which they dispersefor breeding populations. Between winter survival rates for whinchats are thesame for first year birds and adults suggesting that the ubiquitous lower survivalrate of juveniles must arise between fledging and arrival at their winteringterritory: therefore survival estimates for this period should be investigated. Ifsurvival immediately post-fledging or just before migration is variable then thiswill greatly affect local population dynamics, but once migration starts – themultiple routes and large scale connectivity - will mean populations over a largearea will be affected to the same degree. If survival during first migration hasdeclined substantially anywhere then many populations in the Palearctic will beaffected. Average annual true survival for whinchats greater than about 4months old, across much of Eastern Europe is greater than 50%: therefore it is itlikely that local productivity or survival pre-migration determines an individual population’s dynamics, with the overall trajectory for the population beingdetermined by the additive effect of first migration survival. However, furtherestimates of whinchat true annual survival are needed from other areas of Africato determine if overwinter survival is always high: if not then this variation wouldnegatively affect all Palearctic whinchat populations because of large scaleconnectivity, in the same way that first migration survival may do.

AB - Accurate monitoring of whinchat population dynamics requires accurateestimates of breeding season survival and productivity, non-breeding survivaland site fidelity (dispersal, immigration and emmigration). But monitoring ofnon-breeding survival between breeding seasons is confounded by the scale ofsite fidelity resulting in low estimates, and this will vary dependent on breedingsuccess. Only one study (in progress) has measured true survival of whinchatson the wintering grounds (in Nigeria) where site fidelity is probably very high.Results from an ongoing geolocator tagging study also show only very largescale connectivity (at the scale of thousands of kilometres) between breedingand wintering populations. This means that annual survival rates measured atany point on the wintering ground probably average true breeding and migrationsurvival for a large part of the breeding range, giving a representative truesurvival rate to use in calculating population dynamics. More importantly, if wehave a measure of true average annual survival then we can calculate theproportion of adults that are dispersing and also the scale at which they dispersefor breeding populations. Between winter survival rates for whinchats are thesame for first year birds and adults suggesting that the ubiquitous lower survivalrate of juveniles must arise between fledging and arrival at their winteringterritory: therefore survival estimates for this period should be investigated. Ifsurvival immediately post-fledging or just before migration is variable then thiswill greatly affect local population dynamics, but once migration starts – themultiple routes and large scale connectivity - will mean populations over a largearea will be affected to the same degree. If survival during first migration hasdeclined substantially anywhere then many populations in the Palearctic will beaffected. Average annual true survival for whinchats greater than about 4months old, across much of Eastern Europe is greater than 50%: therefore it is itlikely that local productivity or survival pre-migration determines an individual population’s dynamics, with the overall trajectory for the population beingdetermined by the additive effect of first migration survival. However, furtherestimates of whinchat true annual survival are needed from other areas of Africato determine if overwinter survival is always high: if not then this variation wouldnegatively affect all Palearctic whinchat populations because of large scaleconnectivity, in the same way that first migration survival may do.

UR - http://hof.lbv.de/braunkehlchensymposium/symposiumsband-living-on-the-edge-of-extinction.html

M3 - Conference contribution

SN - 9783000495052

SP - 145

EP - 158

BT - Proceedings of the 1st European Whinchat Symposium

A2 - Bastian, Hans-Valentin

A2 - Feulner, Jurgen

PB - Landesbund fur Vogelschutz / Kreisgruppe Hof

CY - LBV Hof Helmsbrechts

T2 - 1st European Whinchat Symposium

Y2 - 28 May 2015 through 29 May 2015

ER -

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ID: 192074404

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