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Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

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Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension. / Nieuwland, Mante S; Politzer-Ahles, Stephen; Heyselaar, Evelien; Segaert, Katrien; Darley, Emily; Kazanina, Nina; Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah; Bartolozzi, Federica; Kogan, Vita; Ito, Aine; Mézière, Diane; Barr, Dale J; Rousselet, Guillaume A; Ferguson, Heather J; Busch-Moreno, Simon; Fu, Xiao; Tuomainen, Jyrki; Kulakova, Eugenia; Husband, E Matthew; Donaldson, David I; Kohút, Zdenko; Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann; Huettig, Falk; Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara G (Editor).

In: eLife, Vol. 7, e33468, 03.04.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

Nieuwland, MS, Politzer-Ahles, S, Heyselaar, E, Segaert, K, Darley, E, Kazanina, N, Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, S, Bartolozzi, F, Kogan, V, Ito, A, Mézière, D, Barr, DJ, Rousselet, GA, Ferguson, HJ, Busch-Moreno, S, Fu, X, Tuomainen, J, Kulakova, E, Husband, EM, Donaldson, DI, Kohút, Z, Rueschemeyer, S-A, Huettig, F & Shinn-Cunningham, BG (ed.) 2018, 'Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension', eLife, vol. 7, e33468. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468

APA

Nieuwland, M. S., Politzer-Ahles, S., Heyselaar, E., Segaert, K., Darley, E., Kazanina, N., Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, S., Bartolozzi, F., Kogan, V., Ito, A., Mézière, D., Barr, D. J., Rousselet, G. A., Ferguson, H. J., Busch-Moreno, S., Fu, X., Tuomainen, J., Kulakova, E., Husband, E. M., ... Shinn-Cunningham, B. G. (Ed.) (2018). Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension. eLife, 7, [e33468]. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468

Vancouver

Nieuwland MS, Politzer-Ahles S, Heyselaar E, Segaert K, Darley E, Kazanina N et al. Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension. eLife. 2018 Apr 3;7. e33468. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468

Author

Nieuwland, Mante S ; Politzer-Ahles, Stephen ; Heyselaar, Evelien ; Segaert, Katrien ; Darley, Emily ; Kazanina, Nina ; Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah ; Bartolozzi, Federica ; Kogan, Vita ; Ito, Aine ; Mézière, Diane ; Barr, Dale J ; Rousselet, Guillaume A ; Ferguson, Heather J ; Busch-Moreno, Simon ; Fu, Xiao ; Tuomainen, Jyrki ; Kulakova, Eugenia ; Husband, E Matthew ; Donaldson, David I ; Kohút, Zdenko ; Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann ; Huettig, Falk ; Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara G (Editor). / Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension. In: eLife. 2018 ; Vol. 7.

Bibtex - Download

@article{460d3ff581af4955b7f923dba27b4cd6,
title = "Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension",
abstract = "Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment ({\textquoteleft}cloze{\textquoteright}). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.",
keywords = "Language comprehension, Prediction, N400",
author = "Nieuwland, {Mante S} and Stephen Politzer-Ahles and Evelien Heyselaar and Katrien Segaert and Emily Darley and Nina Kazanina and {Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn}, Sarah and Federica Bartolozzi and Vita Kogan and Aine Ito and Diane M{\'e}zi{\`e}re and Barr, {Dale J} and Rousselet, {Guillaume A} and Ferguson, {Heather J} and Simon Busch-Moreno and Xiao Fu and Jyrki Tuomainen and Eugenia Kulakova and Husband, {E Matthew} and Donaldson, {David I} and Zdenko Koh{\'u}t and Shirley-Ann Rueschemeyer and Falk Huettig and Shinn-Cunningham, {Barbara G}",
note = "Funding: European Research Council ERC Starting grant 636458.",
year = "2018",
month = apr,
day = "3",
doi = "10.7554/eLife.33468",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
journal = "eLife",
issn = "2050-084X",
publisher = "eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

AU - Nieuwland, Mante S

AU - Politzer-Ahles, Stephen

AU - Heyselaar, Evelien

AU - Segaert, Katrien

AU - Darley, Emily

AU - Kazanina, Nina

AU - Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah

AU - Bartolozzi, Federica

AU - Kogan, Vita

AU - Ito, Aine

AU - Mézière, Diane

AU - Barr, Dale J

AU - Rousselet, Guillaume A

AU - Ferguson, Heather J

AU - Busch-Moreno, Simon

AU - Fu, Xiao

AU - Tuomainen, Jyrki

AU - Kulakova, Eugenia

AU - Husband, E Matthew

AU - Donaldson, David I

AU - Kohút, Zdenko

AU - Rueschemeyer, Shirley-Ann

AU - Huettig, Falk

A2 - Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara G

N1 - Funding: European Research Council ERC Starting grant 636458.

PY - 2018/4/3

Y1 - 2018/4/3

N2 - Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

AB - Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

KW - Language comprehension

KW - Prediction

KW - N400

U2 - 10.7554/eLife.33468

DO - 10.7554/eLife.33468

M3 - Article

VL - 7

JO - eLife

JF - eLife

SN - 2050-084X

M1 - e33468

ER -

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