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Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models

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Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. / Yates, Katherine L.; Bouchet, Phil J.; Caley, M. Julian; Mengersen, Kerrie; Randin, Christophe F.; Parnell, Stephen; Fielding, Alan H.; Bamford, Andrew J.; Ban, Stephen; Márcia Barbosa, A.; Dormann, Carsten F.; Elith, Jane; Embling, Clare B.; Ervin, Gary N.; Fisher, Rebecca; Gould, Susan; Graf, Roland F.; Gregr, Edward J.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Heikkinen, Risto K.; Heinänen, Stefan; Jones, Alice R.; Krishnakumar, Periyadan K.; Lauria, Valentina; Lozano-Montes, Hector; Mannocci, Laura; Mellin, Camille; Mesgaran, Mohsen B.; Moreno-Amat, Elena; Mormede, Sophie; Novaczek, Emilie; Oppel, Steffen; Crespo, Guillermo Ortuño; Townsend Peterson, A.; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Roberts, Jason J.; Ross, Rebecca E.; Scales, Kylie L.; Schoeman, David; Snelgrove, Paul; Sundblad, Göran; Thuiller, Wilfried; Torres, Leigh G.; Verbruggen, Heroen; Wang, Lifei; Wenger, Seth; Whittingham, Mark J.; Zharikov, Yuri; Zurell, Damaris; Sequeira, Ana M. M.

In: Trends in Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 33, No. 10, 10.2018, p. 790-802.

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Harvard

Yates, KL, Bouchet, PJ, Caley, MJ, Mengersen, K, Randin, CF, Parnell, S, Fielding, AH, Bamford, AJ, Ban, S, Márcia Barbosa, A, Dormann, CF, Elith, J, Embling, CB, Ervin, GN, Fisher, R, Gould, S, Graf, RF, Gregr, EJ, Halpin, PN, Heikkinen, RK, Heinänen, S, Jones, AR, Krishnakumar, PK, Lauria, V, Lozano-Montes, H, Mannocci, L, Mellin, C, Mesgaran, MB, Moreno-Amat, E, Mormede, S, Novaczek, E, Oppel, S, Crespo, GO, Townsend Peterson, A, Rapacciuolo, G, Roberts, JJ, Ross, RE, Scales, KL, Schoeman, D, Snelgrove, P, Sundblad, G, Thuiller, W, Torres, LG, Verbruggen, H, Wang, L, Wenger, S, Whittingham, MJ, Zharikov, Y, Zurell, D & Sequeira, AMM 2018, 'Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models', Trends in Ecology and Evolution, vol. 33, no. 10, pp. 790-802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

APA

Yates, K. L., Bouchet, P. J., Caley, M. J., Mengersen, K., Randin, C. F., Parnell, S., Fielding, A. H., Bamford, A. J., Ban, S., Márcia Barbosa, A., Dormann, C. F., Elith, J., Embling, C. B., Ervin, G. N., Fisher, R., Gould, S., Graf, R. F., Gregr, E. J., Halpin, P. N., ... Sequeira, A. M. M. (2018). Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 33(10), 790-802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Vancouver

Yates KL, Bouchet PJ, Caley MJ, Mengersen K, Randin CF, Parnell S et al. Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 2018 Oct;33(10):790-802. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

Author

Yates, Katherine L. ; Bouchet, Phil J. ; Caley, M. Julian ; Mengersen, Kerrie ; Randin, Christophe F. ; Parnell, Stephen ; Fielding, Alan H. ; Bamford, Andrew J. ; Ban, Stephen ; Márcia Barbosa, A. ; Dormann, Carsten F. ; Elith, Jane ; Embling, Clare B. ; Ervin, Gary N. ; Fisher, Rebecca ; Gould, Susan ; Graf, Roland F. ; Gregr, Edward J. ; Halpin, Patrick N. ; Heikkinen, Risto K. ; Heinänen, Stefan ; Jones, Alice R. ; Krishnakumar, Periyadan K. ; Lauria, Valentina ; Lozano-Montes, Hector ; Mannocci, Laura ; Mellin, Camille ; Mesgaran, Mohsen B. ; Moreno-Amat, Elena ; Mormede, Sophie ; Novaczek, Emilie ; Oppel, Steffen ; Crespo, Guillermo Ortuño ; Townsend Peterson, A. ; Rapacciuolo, Giovanni ; Roberts, Jason J. ; Ross, Rebecca E. ; Scales, Kylie L. ; Schoeman, David ; Snelgrove, Paul ; Sundblad, Göran ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Torres, Leigh G. ; Verbruggen, Heroen ; Wang, Lifei ; Wenger, Seth ; Whittingham, Mark J. ; Zharikov, Yuri ; Zurell, Damaris ; Sequeira, Ana M. M. / Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. In: Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 2018 ; Vol. 33, No. 10. pp. 790-802.

Bibtex - Download

@article{f46ed00b761a46d8bf44d9f8cc27c99c,
title = "Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models",
abstract = "Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.",
keywords = "Species distribution model, Climate-change, Decision-making, Temporal transferability, Biotic interactions, Predictive models, Habitat selection, Distributions, NIche, Abundance",
author = "Yates, {Katherine L.} and Bouchet, {Phil J.} and Caley, {M. Julian} and Kerrie Mengersen and Randin, {Christophe F.} and Stephen Parnell and Fielding, {Alan H.} and Bamford, {Andrew J.} and Stephen Ban and {M{\'a}rcia Barbosa}, A. and Dormann, {Carsten F.} and Jane Elith and Embling, {Clare B.} and Ervin, {Gary N.} and Rebecca Fisher and Susan Gould and Graf, {Roland F.} and Gregr, {Edward J.} and Halpin, {Patrick N.} and Heikkinen, {Risto K.} and Stefan Hein{\"a}nen and Jones, {Alice R.} and Krishnakumar, {Periyadan K.} and Valentina Lauria and Hector Lozano-Montes and Laura Mannocci and Camille Mellin and Mesgaran, {Mohsen B.} and Elena Moreno-Amat and Sophie Mormede and Emilie Novaczek and Steffen Oppel and Crespo, {Guillermo Ortu{\~n}o} and {Townsend Peterson}, A. and Giovanni Rapacciuolo and Roberts, {Jason J.} and Ross, {Rebecca E.} and Scales, {Kylie L.} and David Schoeman and Paul Snelgrove and G{\"o}ran Sundblad and Wilfried Thuiller and Torres, {Leigh G.} and Heroen Verbruggen and Lifei Wang and Seth Wenger and Whittingham, {Mark J.} and Yuri Zharikov and Damaris Zurell and Sequeira, {Ana M. M.}",
year = "2018",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001",
language = "English",
volume = "33",
pages = "790--802",
journal = "Trends in Ecology and Evolution",
issn = "0169-5347",
publisher = "ELSEVIER SCIENCE LONDON",
number = "10",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models

AU - Yates, Katherine L.

AU - Bouchet, Phil J.

AU - Caley, M. Julian

AU - Mengersen, Kerrie

AU - Randin, Christophe F.

AU - Parnell, Stephen

AU - Fielding, Alan H.

AU - Bamford, Andrew J.

AU - Ban, Stephen

AU - Márcia Barbosa, A.

AU - Dormann, Carsten F.

AU - Elith, Jane

AU - Embling, Clare B.

AU - Ervin, Gary N.

AU - Fisher, Rebecca

AU - Gould, Susan

AU - Graf, Roland F.

AU - Gregr, Edward J.

AU - Halpin, Patrick N.

AU - Heikkinen, Risto K.

AU - Heinänen, Stefan

AU - Jones, Alice R.

AU - Krishnakumar, Periyadan K.

AU - Lauria, Valentina

AU - Lozano-Montes, Hector

AU - Mannocci, Laura

AU - Mellin, Camille

AU - Mesgaran, Mohsen B.

AU - Moreno-Amat, Elena

AU - Mormede, Sophie

AU - Novaczek, Emilie

AU - Oppel, Steffen

AU - Crespo, Guillermo Ortuño

AU - Townsend Peterson, A.

AU - Rapacciuolo, Giovanni

AU - Roberts, Jason J.

AU - Ross, Rebecca E.

AU - Scales, Kylie L.

AU - Schoeman, David

AU - Snelgrove, Paul

AU - Sundblad, Göran

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Torres, Leigh G.

AU - Verbruggen, Heroen

AU - Wang, Lifei

AU - Wenger, Seth

AU - Whittingham, Mark J.

AU - Zharikov, Yuri

AU - Zurell, Damaris

AU - Sequeira, Ana M. M.

PY - 2018/10

Y1 - 2018/10

N2 - Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.

AB - Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their 'transferability') undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.

KW - Species distribution model

KW - Climate-change

KW - Decision-making

KW - Temporal transferability

KW - Biotic interactions

KW - Predictive models

KW - Habitat selection

KW - Distributions

KW - NIche

KW - Abundance

U2 - 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

DO - 10.1016/j.tree.2018.08.001

M3 - Review article

VL - 33

SP - 790

EP - 802

JO - Trends in Ecology and Evolution

JF - Trends in Ecology and Evolution

SN - 0169-5347

IS - 10

ER -

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