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Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios

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Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios. / Russell, Deborah Jill Fraser; Wanless, Sarah; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Huntley, Brian; Hamer, Keith C.

In: Diversity, Vol. 7, No. 4, 02.11.2015, p. 342-359.

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Russell, DJF, Wanless, S, Collingham, YC, Huntley, B & Hamer, KC 2015, 'Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios' Diversity, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 342-359. https://doi.org/10.3390/d7040342

APA

Russell, D. J. F., Wanless, S., Collingham, Y. C., Huntley, B., & Hamer, K. C. (2015). Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios. Diversity, 7(4), 342-359. https://doi.org/10.3390/d7040342

Vancouver

Russell DJF, Wanless S, Collingham YC, Huntley B, Hamer KC. Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios. Diversity. 2015 Nov 2;7(4):342-359. https://doi.org/10.3390/d7040342

Author

Russell, Deborah Jill Fraser ; Wanless, Sarah ; Collingham, Yvonne C. ; Huntley, Brian ; Hamer, Keith C. / Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios. In: Diversity. 2015 ; Vol. 7, No. 4. pp. 342-359.

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@article{6e2a05dd523b436fb3f55929b6d0363d,
title = "Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios",
abstract = "Understanding which traits make species vulnerable to climatic change and predicting future distributions permits conservation efforts to be focused on the most vulnerable species and the most appropriate sites. Here, we combine climate envelope models with predicted bioclimatic data from two emission scenarios leading up to 2100, to predict European breeding distributions of 23 seabird species that currently breed in the British Isles. Assuming unlimited dispersal, some species would be “winners” (increase the size of their range), but over 65{\%} would lose range, some by up to 80{\%}. These “losers” have a high vulnerability to low prey availability, and a northerly distribution meaning they would lack space to move into. Under the worst-case scenario of no dispersal, species are predicted to lose between 25{\%} and 100{\%} of their range, so dispersal ability is a key constraint on future range sizes. More globally, the results indicate, based on foraging ecology, which seabird species are likely to be most affected by climatic change. Neither of the emissions scenarios used in this study is extreme, yet they generate very different predictions for some species, illustrating that even small decreases in emissions could yield large benefits for conservation.",
keywords = "Climate envelope modelling, Climate response surface, Conservation, Ecological niche modelling, Extinction risk, Foraging ecology, Global warming, Marine spatial planning, Sea surface temperature, Species distribution model",
author = "Russell, {Deborah Jill Fraser} and Sarah Wanless and Collingham, {Yvonne C.} and Brian Huntley and Hamer, {Keith C.}",
note = "We thank the European Bird Census Council for their data on European seabird distributions. DJFR was supported by NERC UKPopNet.",
year = "2015",
month = "11",
day = "2",
doi = "10.3390/d7040342",
language = "English",
volume = "7",
pages = "342--359",
journal = "Diversity",
issn = "1424-2818",
publisher = "Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)",
number = "4",

}

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting future European breeding distributions of British seabird species under climate change and unlimited/no dispersal scenarios

AU - Russell, Deborah Jill Fraser

AU - Wanless, Sarah

AU - Collingham, Yvonne C.

AU - Huntley, Brian

AU - Hamer, Keith C.

N1 - We thank the European Bird Census Council for their data on European seabird distributions. DJFR was supported by NERC UKPopNet.

PY - 2015/11/2

Y1 - 2015/11/2

N2 - Understanding which traits make species vulnerable to climatic change and predicting future distributions permits conservation efforts to be focused on the most vulnerable species and the most appropriate sites. Here, we combine climate envelope models with predicted bioclimatic data from two emission scenarios leading up to 2100, to predict European breeding distributions of 23 seabird species that currently breed in the British Isles. Assuming unlimited dispersal, some species would be “winners” (increase the size of their range), but over 65% would lose range, some by up to 80%. These “losers” have a high vulnerability to low prey availability, and a northerly distribution meaning they would lack space to move into. Under the worst-case scenario of no dispersal, species are predicted to lose between 25% and 100% of their range, so dispersal ability is a key constraint on future range sizes. More globally, the results indicate, based on foraging ecology, which seabird species are likely to be most affected by climatic change. Neither of the emissions scenarios used in this study is extreme, yet they generate very different predictions for some species, illustrating that even small decreases in emissions could yield large benefits for conservation.

AB - Understanding which traits make species vulnerable to climatic change and predicting future distributions permits conservation efforts to be focused on the most vulnerable species and the most appropriate sites. Here, we combine climate envelope models with predicted bioclimatic data from two emission scenarios leading up to 2100, to predict European breeding distributions of 23 seabird species that currently breed in the British Isles. Assuming unlimited dispersal, some species would be “winners” (increase the size of their range), but over 65% would lose range, some by up to 80%. These “losers” have a high vulnerability to low prey availability, and a northerly distribution meaning they would lack space to move into. Under the worst-case scenario of no dispersal, species are predicted to lose between 25% and 100% of their range, so dispersal ability is a key constraint on future range sizes. More globally, the results indicate, based on foraging ecology, which seabird species are likely to be most affected by climatic change. Neither of the emissions scenarios used in this study is extreme, yet they generate very different predictions for some species, illustrating that even small decreases in emissions could yield large benefits for conservation.

KW - Climate envelope modelling

KW - Climate response surface

KW - Conservation

KW - Ecological niche modelling

KW - Extinction risk

KW - Foraging ecology

KW - Global warming

KW - Marine spatial planning

KW - Sea surface temperature

KW - Species distribution model

U2 - 10.3390/d7040342

DO - 10.3390/d7040342

M3 - Article

VL - 7

SP - 342

EP - 359

JO - Diversity

T2 - Diversity

JF - Diversity

SN - 1424-2818

IS - 4

ER -

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ID: 209437567