Skip to content

Research at St Andrews

State-space models for the dynamics of wild animal populations

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle


Stephen Terrence Buckland, Kenneth Brian Newman, Len Thomas, Nils B Koesters

School/Research organisations


We develop a unified framework for jointly defining population dynamics models and measurements taken on a population. The framework is a state-space model where the population processes are modelled by the state process and measurements are modelled by the observation process. In many cases, the expected value for the state process can be represented as a generalisation of the standard population projection matrix: each sub-process within the state process may be modelled by a separate matrix and the product of these matrices is a generalised Leslie matrix. By selecting appropriate matrices and their ordering, a wide range of models may be specified. The method is fully flexible for allowing stochastic variation in the processes. Process parameters may themselves be modelled as functions of covariates. The structure accommodates effects such as density dependence, competition and predator-prey relationships, and metapopulations are readily modelled. Observations on the population enter through an observation process model, and we show how likelihood functions can be built that reflect both demographic stochasticity (which appears in the state process) and stochastic errors in the observations. Parameter estimation and estimation of state process variables can be conducted using sequential Monte Carlo procedures. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.



Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)157-175
Number of pages19
JournalEcological Modelling
Issue number1-2
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2004

    Research areas

  • generalised Leslie matrix, open population models, population dynamics models, recursive filtering algorithms, state-space models, SIMULATION, SALMON

Discover related content
Find related publications, people, projects and more using interactive charts.

View graph of relations

Related by author

  1. Model-based approaches to deal with detectability: a comment on Hutto (2016a)

    Marques, T. A., Thomas, L., Kery, M., Buckland, S. T., Borchers, D. L., Rexstad, E., Fewster, R. M., Mackenzie, D. I., Royle, J. A., Guillera-Arroita, G., Handel, C. M., Pavlacky, D. C. & Camp, R. J., Jul 2017, In : Ecological Applications. 27, 5, p. 1694-1698 5 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalLetter

  2. Estimating Key Largo woodrat abundance using spatially explicit capture–recapture and trapping point transects

    Potts, J. M., Buckland, S. T., Thomas, L. & Savage, A., Jun 2016, In : Wildlife Society Bulletin. 40, 2, p. 331-338

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  3. Distance sampling surveys of population size: Enabling better decision-making by wildlife managers

    Buckland, S. T., Rexstad, E., Thomas, L. & Borchers, D. L., 1 Jan 2016, UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Springer, p. 45-51 7 p.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

  4. The effect of animal movement on line transect estimates of abundance

    Glennie, R., Buckland, S. T. & Thomas, L., 23 Mar 2015, In : PLoS One. 10, 3, e0121333.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  5. Statistical ecology comes of age

    Gimenez, O., Buckland, S. T., Morgan, B. J. T., Bez, N., Bertrand, S., Choquet, R., Dray, S., Etienne, M-P., Fewster, R., Gosselin, F., Merigot, B., Monestiez, P., Morales, J. M., Mortier, F., Munoz, F., Ovaskainen, O., Pavoine, S., Pradel, R., Schurr, F. M., Thomas, L. & 4 others, Thuiller, W., Trenkel, V., de Valpine, P. & Rexstad, E., 24 Dec 2014, In : Biology Letters. 10, 4 p., 20140698.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Related by journal

  1. Integrated modelling of Atlantic mackerel distribution patterns and movements: a template for dynamic impact assessments

    Heinänen, S., Chudzinska, M. E., Brandi Mortensen, J., Teo, T. Z. E., Rong Utne, K., Doksæter Sivle, L. & Thomsen, F., 10 Nov 2018, In : Ecological Modelling. 387, p. 118-133 16 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  2. Pesticides and bees: ecological-economic modelling of bee populations on farmland

    Kleczkowski, A., Ellis, C., Hanley, N. & Goulson, D., 24 Sep 2017, In : Ecological Modelling. 360, p. 53-62 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  3. The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification

    Macpherson, M. F., Kleczkowski, A., Healey, J. R., Quine, C. P. & Hanley, N., 24 Apr 2017, In : Ecological Modelling. 350, p. 87-99 13 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  4. Discriminating between possible foraging decisions using pattern-oriented modelling: the case of pink-footed geese in Mid-Norway during their spring migration

    Chudzińska, M., Ayllón, D., Madsen, J. & Nabe-Nielsen, J., 24 Jan 2016, In : Ecological Modelling. 320, p. 299-315 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  5. Dynamics of larch bud moth populations: application of Moran - Ricker models with time lag

    Nedorezov, L. V. & Sadykova, D. L., 10 Feb 2015, In : Ecological Modelling. 297, p. 26-32 7 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Related by journal

  1. Ecological Modelling (Journal)

    Monique Lea MacKenzie (Editor)
    2002 → …

    Activity: Publication peer-review and editorial work typesEditor of research journal

ID: 246301