Skip to content

Research at St Andrews

Technology selection —the impact of economic risk on decision making

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Andrew S. King, Nicholas G. Elliott, Mark A. James, Catriona K. Macleod, Trond Bjorndal

School/Research organisations


Developing an understanding of economic variance (risk) is critical when evaluating alternative aquaculture production technologies. This article assesses the efficacy of employing a quantitative stochastic analysis technique to support technology selection decision making by undertaking a case study investment assessment of three alternative production expansion strategies (offshore sea-pens, land-based RAS growout and larger post-smolt) for the Tasmanian salmon industry. Results demonstrate that salmon aquaculture is undertaken with considerable underlying levels of economic risk, expansion offshore probably represents the lowest initial capital investment and greatest economic return, and that levels of financial uncertainty increase with land-based RAS production. The study highlights stochastic modeling provides significant “added-value” over single-point deterministic analysis and that developing an appreciation of the input variability is a key component in critically evaluating alternative production technologies.


Original languageEnglish
Number of pages27
JournalAquaculture Economics & Management
VolumeLatest Articles
Early online date21 Dec 2016
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 21 Dec 2016

    Research areas

  • Aquaculture, Decision making, Monte Carlo simulation, Production technology, Risk, Stochastic modeling

Discover related content
Find related publications, people, projects and more using interactive charts.

View graph of relations

Related by author

  1. Return to sender: the influence of larval behaviour on the distribution and settlement of the European oyster Ostrea edulis

    Rodriguez-Perez, A., Sanderson, W. G., Møller, L. F., Henry, T. B. & James, M., 12 Nov 2020, In: Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems. 30, 11, p. 2116-2132 17 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

  2. Effect of temporal and spatial resolution on identification of fishing activities in small-scale fisheries using pots and traps

    Mendo, T., Smout, S., Russo, T., D'Andrea, L., James, M. & Maravelias, C., 1 Dec 2019, In: ICES Journal of Marine Science. 76, 6, p. 1601-1609 9 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

  3. Identifying fishing grounds from vessel tracks: model-based inference for small scale fisheries

    Mendo, T., Smout, S. C., Photopoulou, T. & James, M., 2 Oct 2019, In: Royal Society Open Science. 6, 10, 12 p., 191161.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

  4. Conservation and restoration of a keystone species: understanding the settlement preferences of the European oyster (Ostrea edulis)

    Rodriguez-Perez, A., James, M., Donnan, D. W., Henry, T. B., Møller, L. F. & Sanderson, W. G., Jan 2019, In: Marine Pollution Bulletin. 138, p. 312-321 10 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

ID: 248666380