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Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Temporal change in UK marine communities : trends or regime shifts? / Spencer, M.; Birchenough, S. N. R.; Mieszkowska, N.; Robinson, L. A.; Simpson, S. D.; Burrows, M. T.; Capasso, E.; Cleall-Harding, P.; Crummy, J.; Duck, C.; Eloire, D.; Frost, M.; Hall, A. J.; Hawkins, S. J.; Johns, D. G.; Sims, D. W.; Smyth, T. J.; Frid, C. L. J.

In: Marine Ecology, Vol. 32, 04.2011, p. 10-24.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Spencer, M, Birchenough, SNR, Mieszkowska, N, Robinson, LA, Simpson, SD, Burrows, MT, Capasso, E, Cleall-Harding, P, Crummy, J, Duck, C, Eloire, D, Frost, M, Hall, AJ, Hawkins, SJ, Johns, DG, Sims, DW, Smyth, TJ & Frid, CLJ 2011, 'Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?' Marine Ecology, vol. 32, pp. 10-24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0485.2010.00422.x

APA

Spencer, M., Birchenough, S. N. R., Mieszkowska, N., Robinson, L. A., Simpson, S. D., Burrows, M. T., ... Frid, C. L. J. (2011). Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts? Marine Ecology, 32, 10-24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0485.2010.00422.x

Vancouver

Spencer M, Birchenough SNR, Mieszkowska N, Robinson LA, Simpson SD, Burrows MT et al. Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts? Marine Ecology. 2011 Apr;32:10-24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-0485.2010.00422.x

Author

Spencer, M. ; Birchenough, S. N. R. ; Mieszkowska, N. ; Robinson, L. A. ; Simpson, S. D. ; Burrows, M. T. ; Capasso, E. ; Cleall-Harding, P. ; Crummy, J. ; Duck, C. ; Eloire, D. ; Frost, M. ; Hall, A. J. ; Hawkins, S. J. ; Johns, D. G. ; Sims, D. W. ; Smyth, T. J. ; Frid, C. L. J. / Temporal change in UK marine communities : trends or regime shifts?. In: Marine Ecology. 2011 ; Vol. 32. pp. 10-24.

Bibtex - Download

@article{d0bd10d53ff646f6bfd03f5d8c00928f,
title = "Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?",
abstract = "A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e. g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov's regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.",
keywords = "Abundance, population trends, principal components, regime shift detection, regime shifts, time series, UK marine ecosystems, LONG-TERM CHANGES, WESTERN ENGLISH-CHANNEL, NORTH-SEA, CLIMATE-CHANGE, ECOSYSTEM, NORTHUMBERLAND, VARIABILITY, RESILIENCE, ATLANTIC, EUTROPHICATION",
author = "M. Spencer and Birchenough, {S. N. R.} and N. Mieszkowska and Robinson, {L. A.} and Simpson, {S. D.} and Burrows, {M. T.} and E. Capasso and P. Cleall-Harding and J. Crummy and C. Duck and D. Eloire and M. Frost and Hall, {A. J.} and Hawkins, {S. J.} and Johns, {D. G.} and Sims, {D. W.} and Smyth, {T. J.} and Frid, {C. L. J.}",
year = "2011",
month = "4",
doi = "10.1111/j.1439-0485.2010.00422.x",
language = "English",
volume = "32",
pages = "10--24",
journal = "Marine Ecology",
issn = "1439-0485",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) - Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Temporal change in UK marine communities

T2 - Marine Ecology

AU - Spencer, M.

AU - Birchenough, S. N. R.

AU - Mieszkowska, N.

AU - Robinson, L. A.

AU - Simpson, S. D.

AU - Burrows, M. T.

AU - Capasso, E.

AU - Cleall-Harding, P.

AU - Crummy, J.

AU - Duck, C.

AU - Eloire, D.

AU - Frost, M.

AU - Hall, A. J.

AU - Hawkins, S. J.

AU - Johns, D. G.

AU - Sims, D. W.

AU - Smyth, T. J.

AU - Frid, C. L. J.

PY - 2011/4

Y1 - 2011/4

N2 - A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e. g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov's regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.

AB - A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e. g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov's regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.

KW - Abundance

KW - population trends

KW - principal components

KW - regime shift detection

KW - regime shifts

KW - time series

KW - UK marine ecosystems

KW - LONG-TERM CHANGES

KW - WESTERN ENGLISH-CHANNEL

KW - NORTH-SEA

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE

KW - ECOSYSTEM

KW - NORTHUMBERLAND

KW - VARIABILITY

KW - RESILIENCE

KW - ATLANTIC

KW - EUTROPHICATION

U2 - 10.1111/j.1439-0485.2010.00422.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1439-0485.2010.00422.x

M3 - Article

VL - 32

SP - 10

EP - 24

JO - Marine Ecology

JF - Marine Ecology

SN - 1439-0485

ER -

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ID: 242632117